After years of media panic, soft-on-crime excuses, and endless lectures about how enforcement supposedly does not matter, the data is delivering a very inconvenient message. Violent crime in the United States is dropping, fast. And not just a little. According to a new analysis from crime data expert Jeff Asher, the country is on track for the largest single-year decline in murders ever recorded.
Using data from the Real-Time Crime Index, which pulls from 570 law enforcement agencies covering roughly 115 million Americans, murders are down nearly 20 percent through October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. That comes after a 13 percent decline from 2023 to 2024. In other words, this is not a fluke. It is an accelerating trend that started once the post-COVID crime chaos began to cool off.
The numbers are not limited to homicides. Robberies are down more than 18 percent. Aggravated assaults dropped over 7 percent. Property crime fell by more than 12 percent. Motor vehicle theft, which exploded after 2020 while politicians shrugged, is down an eye-opening 23 percent. Overall violent crime declined by more than 10 percent. These figures do not include manslaughter, self-defense cases, or accidental deaths, making the trend even more notable.
Even the cities constantly used as crime horror stories are seeing dramatic improvements. Chicago and Washington both recorded nearly 28 percent drops in murders. New York City and Los Angeles saw roughly 20 percent declines. Memphis, one of the most violent cities just a year ago, also recorded a 20 percent drop.
Other historically violent cities are hitting numbers not seen in decades. New Orleans is on pace for its fewest murders since 1970. Detroit is seeing levels not recorded since 1964. Baltimore since 1962. Philadelphia since 1966. Oakland since 1967. San Francisco possibly since World War II.
Asher estimates roughly 12,000 fewer people were murdered in 2024 and 2025 combined compared to 2020 and 2021, with about 14,000 murders projected for 2025. That is real progress, even if the number is still far too high.
This trend follows the massive crime spike during and after the COVID era, when lockdowns, anti-police rhetoric, and policy chaos ruled the day. While official FBI confirmation for 2025 will not arrive until mid-2026, the early indicators are consistent across multiple sources.
Crime did not magically fix itself. The data suggests that consequences, enforcement, and public pressure still matter, no matter how uncomfortable that truth is for certain commentators.