Democrats are starting to sweat buckets in New York, and they should be. A new hypothetical matchup between Governor Kathy Hochul and MAGA star Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) shows Hochul barely clinging to a 6-point lead — in a state that’s supposed to be deep blue. If that doesn’t scream “trouble ahead,” nothing does.
The GOP-commissioned poll shows Stefanik with a commanding presence among New York Republicans. She grabs 44% support in a hypothetical GOP primary, miles ahead of Rep. Mike Lawler (7%) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (5%). Oh, and 44% are undecided, meaning there’s still a massive reservoir of voters up for grabs — voters who clearly know and trust Stefanik. Her favorability among Republicans sits at a sky-high +47, and only 9% have an unfavorable view of her. Meanwhile, Lawler and Blakeman might as well be strangers at a family reunion — most Republicans don’t even know who they are.
🚨 BREAKING: Elise Stefanik (R) trails New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) by just 6 points, 46%-40%, for the 2026 governor election – Gray House poll
Stefanik also leads a theoretical GOP primary by 37 points. pic.twitter.com/ukgsVlXBiG
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 28, 2025
Stefanik’s name recognition and rock-solid support didn’t come out of nowhere. She’s been grinding since 2014, representing New York’s 21st Congressional District, and proudly carrying the MAGA torch. President Trump himself has sung her praises, recently posting on Truth Social, “Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!” It’s clear Trumpworld would be all-in if she jumps into the governor’s race.
Hochul, on the other hand, is flailing. A separate poll of 600 likely voters shows her leading Stefanik by just 46% to 40%. In politics, when an incumbent can’t even hit 47% in a head-to-head, that’s like flashing a giant neon sign that says “Vulnerable!” Even worse for Hochul, 61% of New Yorkers polled say they want “someone new.” Ouch.
Let’s not forget: Hochul barely survived against Lee Zeldin in 2022, winning by just 6 points in what was supposed to be a Democrat stronghold. And now? She’s sitting on a brutal 36% job approval rating, with 55% of voters giving her a big thumbs down. Those are Biden-level numbers — and not in a good way.
New York Republicans, energized under leaders like Governor Glenn Youngkin in Virginia and President Trump nationwide, smell blood in the water. If Stefanik steps up, throws her hat in the ring, and gets the national GOP machine behind her, Hochul could be packing her bags in 2026.
For a party that thought it had a permanent lock on New York, this poll is a flashing red warning. The empire is crumbling, and MAGA is rising.