The 2020 Presidential Election witnessed a significant surge in mail-in voting, largely due to the implementation of “no excuse mail-in voting” and the distribution of ballots to every registered voter. However, concerns about the security and integrity of mail-in ballots have persisted for years. In fact, a bipartisan report from former President Jimmy Carter and former Secretary of State James Baker in 2005 referred to mail-in balloting as “one of the major sources of fraud.” Despite these warnings, the number of mail-in ballots cast in 2020 reached a staggering 65.5 million, more than double the number in 2016.
Interestingly, prior to the 2020 election, the media’s narrative surrounding mail-in voting underwent a significant shift. While warnings about the potential dangers of mail-in ballots were once prevalent, the media began touting the idea that mail-in voting was not only secure but even more secure than in-person voting. The New York Times claimed in May 2020 that mail-in balloting was “even more secure than in-person voting,” while another article in August 2020 asserted that voting by mail was the “surest path to a more inclusive, more accurate, and more secure election.” These shifts in narrative raise questions about the true security of mail-in ballots.
In December, the Heartland Institute released a report titled “Who Really Won the 2020 Election?” in partnership with Rasmussen Reports. The report aimed to assess the potential impact of mail-in ballot fraud on the outcome of the Trump-Biden race for the White House. The findings were nothing short of shocking.
To understand the extent of mail-in voter fraud, the Heartland Institute conducted a poll of 1,085 individuals who voted in the 2020 election. The results were eye-opening, with 30% of respondents indicating that they had voted by mail. Among these mail-in voters, a significant number admitted to engaging in fraudulent activities:
- 21% admitted to voting in a state where they were no longer permanent residents.
- 21% confessed to filling out a ballot for a friend or family member.
- 17% admitted to signing a ballot for a friend or family member, with or without their permission.
- 19% revealed that a friend or family member had filled out their ballot, partially or entirely, on their behalf.
Based on the polling data, the Heartland Institute extrapolated the potential impact of mail-in ballot fraud on the electoral results. The report considered different levels of fraud and assessed various swing states individually.
At the highest assumed level of fraud (28.2%), President Trump would have emerged as the winner in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This would have resulted in a significant victory for Trump in the Electoral College, with a final tally of 311-227.
Even at the lowest assumed level of fraud (2-1%), President Trump would have secured victory in multiple states, including Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In this scenario, the Electoral College result would have been 278-260 in favor of Trump.
In addition to presenting their findings, the Heartland Institute report offered proactive and preventative recommendations to address the issue of voter fraud. These suggestions included:
- Updating and verifying registration rolls annually.
- Requiring identification for in-person voting.
- Encouraging in-person voting.
- Requiring a witness or notary signature on all mail-in ballots.
- Requiring a valid excuse to request a mail-in ballot.
- Outlawing ballot harvesting.
- Forbidding unattended and unsecured drop boxes.
- Implementing signature verification for mail-in voting.
- Establishing state-level agencies to investigate claims of election law violations.
- Passing laws that impose harsh penalties for voter fraud.
The report also proposed the involvement of notaries to validate all ballot signatures and even suggested reimbursing notaries for their services. These recommendations aim to ensure the integrity of the voting process and prevent fraudulent activities.