Kamala Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate for the upcoming election and the choice has left political analysts scratching their heads and MSNBC in turmoil. The announcement sparked immediate criticism from MSNBC’s primary political analyst, Steve Kornacki, who didn’t hold back his skepticism.
Kornacki took to social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) to express his bewilderment, arguing that Walz does not provide the much-needed “boost” Harris requires to surpass President Trump in the polls. Let’s dive into why Kornacki, renowned for his data-driven insights, holds such a dire view of this selection.
First off, let’s talk numbers. Kornacki pointed to Minnesota’s 2022 gubernatorial race, where Walz struggled mightily with blue-collar, working-class voters. These are precisely the kind of voters Democrats have been losing to Republicans in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. According to Kornacki’s analysis, Walz’s performance in the 2022 race shows he failed to make significant inroads in these communities. In 25 Minnesota counties where more than 75% of white residents do not hold a four-year degree, Walz’s margins of loss in 2022 mirrored President Trump’s levels of support in the 2020 election. For instance, in rural Mower County, Walz saw a modest margin of -3%, but things went downhill fast in Morrison County, where his margin plummeted to a staggering -52%.
The results of Walz's '22 GOV race in MN don't suggest he provides an obvious boost with the blue collar voters Dems have been shedding in WI/MI/PA: https://t.co/knKPzbd05E
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) August 6, 2024
Kornacki highlighted that Harris’s choice of Walz is being described as the “path of least resistance,” per insiders speaking to Politico. Essentially, Walz’s selection seems like a safe, albeit ineffective, bet to avoid controversy rather than a strategic move to win over crucial voter demographics.
But it’s not just the blue-collar voters where Walz falls short. Even in the more liberal counties, his support has remained static. Since 2020, Walz’s levels of support in Minneapolis’s Hennepin County and several other areas haven’t budged. Kornacki pointed out that in two of these counties, Walz trails a generic Republican by six and seven percent, respectively. These are more highly educated areas that have trended towards Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden since 2012.
So, what does all this mean for Kamala Harris? Kornacki’s data suggests that while Walz might solidify support among college-educated white voters, he does little to improve her standing among working-class whites. This is critically important as Harris has seen a surge in support among Black voters, who previously showed unprecedented levels of favorability toward President Trump for a Republican candidate since the Civil Rights era.
Meanwhile, President Trump hasn’t wasted any time questioning Harris’s motives and strategies. During a recent trip to Atlanta, Harris was criticized for delivering her stump speech with an exaggerated Southern twang, which Trump pointed out as an obvious attempt to pander to the local electorate.
While Kamala Harris’s selection of Tim Walz as her running mate may have been intended as a safe choice, Kornacki’s analysis paints a bleak picture of its potential impact. Without significant gains among blue-collar voters, this duo might find themselves facing an uphill battle against President Trump.