Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to be facing the twilight of his nearly decade-long premiership, as a perfect storm of collapsing support, internal defections, and mounting public dissatisfaction threatens to unseat his Liberal government. Once celebrated as a progressive reformer, Trudeau now contends with an unprecedented political unraveling that could reshape Canada’s political landscape.
The numbers are bleak for the Liberals. Recent polling shows Trudeau’s party languishing at just 21% support, matching the historically low levels of the New Democratic Party (NDP). In contrast, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, commands a commanding 43%—a margin that positions them as overwhelming favorites to assume power. Election odds put the Conservatives at -2500, underscoring their dominant position, while the Liberals trail at +800.
JUST IN: Pierre Poilievre predicted to be the next Prime Minister of Canada, replacing Justin Trudeau – Polymarket
Odds: 92% pic.twitter.com/pXwWnB6nFS
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 30, 2024
Adding to Trudeau’s woes, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s recent resignation has sent shockwaves through Canadian politics. Freeland’s exit is the latest in a string of high-profile Liberal defections, signaling deep internal fractures within the party. Critics from within Trudeau’s ranks are increasingly calling for him to step down, pointing to his inability to address widespread economic grievances that have defined his latter years in office.
Trudeau’s tenure has been plagued by controversies that have tarnished his once-gleaming political brand. From ethics violations and blackface photos to the SNC-Lavalin scandal, these missteps have eroded public trust. However, the most pressing challenge has been his failure to manage Canada’s escalating economic crises. Soaring housing costs, an overburdened healthcare system, and an untenable cost of living have left Canadians clamoring for change.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have capitalized on this discontent, riding a wave of populist sentiment that echoes movements across other Western democracies. Poilievre has cast himself as a champion of fiscal responsibility and economic revitalization, striking a chord with a public eager for solutions to bread-and-butter issues.
An Ipsos poll reveals that 78% of Canadians believe it is time for a new government, a stark contrast to the optimism that marked Trudeau’s 2015 rise to power. Meanwhile, the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, has announced plans to introduce a motion of non-confidence in Parliament, potentially triggering an election as early as 2024.
As Trudeau’s grip on power slips, Canada edges closer to a political reckoning. The question is not only who will govern next but also how Trudeau’s legacy—as both a transformative leader and a deeply polarizing figure—will be remembered.