Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito may have just tipped his hand, and if the clues are real, his retirement could be coming fast, possibly as soon as July.
The hint is not coming from Alito himself, but from an unlikely source, the far-left magazine The Nation. According to the outlet, Alito’s new book, So Ordered: An Originalist’s View of the Constitution, the Court, and the Country, is scheduled for release on October 6. That date is not random. It is one day after the Supreme Court opens its 2026–2027 term, which traditionally begins in the first week of October.
That timing immediately raised eyebrows, even among Alito’s critics.
Left-wing commentator Elie Mystal laid out the theory with surprising clarity. Justices typically release books in May or September, when they are free to promote them. October is the worst possible time to launch a book if you are actively sitting on the Court, unless you are no longer planning to be there.
Mystal argues the publication date strongly suggests Alito plans to retire at the end of the current term, which concludes in July. That timing would allow President Donald Trump and a Republican-controlled Senate to nominate and confirm a replacement before the 2026 midterms, assuming Republicans hold the chamber.
Alito turns 76 this April. He has already secured his place in history, most notably with the Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Unlike some justices who cling to the bench until the very end, Alito has always appeared keenly aware of political realities. Betting the future of his seat on uncertain midterm outcomes would be an unnecessary gamble.
Among conservatives, Alito is second only to Clarence Thomas in reliability. The idea of stepping aside and being replaced by a younger originalist who could serve for decades is not exactly a hard sell. Conservatives still remember the cautionary tale of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, whose decision to stay on the bench until her death in 2020 reshaped the Court at the worst possible moment for Democrats.
Ironically, Democrats now complain endlessly about conservative justices thinking strategically, even though they openly celebrated when Stephen Breyer retired to make room for Ketanji Brown Jackson.
As for Amy Coney Barrett, her mixed record since confirmation has only reinforced the desire among conservatives for nominees with longer, clearer track records.
Nothing is official yet, but the book release date looks less like coincidence and more like a quiet signal. If Alito does retire this summer, it would be a calculated move, one that secures his legacy and preserves the Court’s balance while Republicans still have the votes to do it.