President Trump is turning up the heat on Iran, warning that Tehran is working on missile technology that could “soon reach the United States of America.” While Iran cannot currently strike the U.S. homeland with an intercontinental ballistic missile, the broader picture is far from reassuring.
According to U.S. officials, Iran does not yet possess an operational ICBM capable of reaching American soil. To hit the U.S. East Coast, Tehran would need a missile with a range of roughly 10,000 kilometers, well beyond its known capabilities. For now, that line has not been crossed.
But focusing only on the homeland misses the bigger issue.
Iran is widely believed to maintain the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. Its arsenal consists largely of short and medium range ballistic missiles with ranges of up to about 2,000 kilometers, roughly 1,200 miles. That is more than enough to threaten a long list of American military installations across the Gulf.
Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command, is within reach. So is Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan also fall inside Iran’s missile envelope.
This is not theoretical. In January 2020, after the U.S. strike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, Iran fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. positions in Iraq. While there were no immediate fatalities, dozens of American service members later suffered traumatic brain injuries. That episode underscored just how exposed forward deployed U.S. forces remain.
As tensions have risen, the United States has bolstered its regional posture. Carrier strike groups, destroyers, and Air Force fighter squadrons have surged into and around the Middle East. The message is deterrence. If Iran escalates, the response will be swift.
There is also a longer term concern. U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that Iran’s space launch program could provide the technological foundation for a future ICBM. The Defense Intelligence Agency recently assessed that Iran “has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.”
That timeline is not tomorrow, but it is not far off either.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has argued that Iran’s refusal to negotiate limits on its ballistic missile program is “a big problem.” Delivery systems are not a side issue. They are central to the threat equation.
For now, the immediate danger is not a missile streaking toward New York. It is the thousands of American troops stationed within range of Iran’s current arsenal. President Trump’s warning is a reminder that while the homeland may be out of reach today, American interests abroad already are not.