After a brief wobble in November, President Trump’s approval rating is right back where it has lived for most of the year, right around the 50 percent mark. According to a new national poll, the handwringing was premature, again.
An InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 likely voters conducted December 19 and 20 shows President Trump at 50 percent approval, with 41 percent disapproving and 9 percent undecided. The poll carries a 3.46 point margin of error and used a mix of text and cellphone interviews. In other words, a pretty standard snapshot of the national mood, and not exactly the collapse some commentators were rooting for a month ago.
The rebound is notable because InsiderAdvantage’s November poll had Trump slipping to 44 percent approval after months of sitting at or above 50 percent. That dip triggered the usual round of hot takes about momentum, fatigue, and voters turning sour. Then reality intervened. Since then, Trump delivered a nationally televised address and the latest inflation report showed consumer prices continuing to cool. Funny how results still matter.
Pollster Matt Towery pointed directly to timing. He noted the survey came after Trump’s speech and the CPI report, saying that after the November dip, Trump’s approval “moved back into the fifty-percentile range.” Towery also pointed out where the improvement came from, and this is where Democrats should be paying attention.
Independents were the biggest driver of the rebound, which is exactly the group Democrats assumed would permanently abandon Trump. On top of that, support among younger voters rose, as did support among female voters. Those are two demographics Democrats treat like guaranteed property. Trump keeps chipping away anyway, and the trend line is not going the direction the left wants.
There is also an interesting wrinkle in the data. Nearly one in ten respondents said they were undecided on Trump’s job performance. That is unusually high for a modern presidential approval poll. Towery explained that this suggests some voters, particularly independents, are still weighing Trump’s accomplishments and want to see more as the GOP heads toward the midterm season.
That cuts both ways. On one hand, it shows Trump still has room to grow. On the other, it proves his critics have failed to lock in opposition the way they expected by now. People are still watching, still listening, and still open to persuasion, which is not what you would expect if the narrative about total rejection were true.
For Republicans, this poll is both reassurance and reminder. President Trump has shown, once again, that he can recover quickly after a rough stretch. At the same time, the undecided share signals that complacency would be a mistake.
For Democrats, it is the same old lesson they never seem to learn. Writing off President Trump early has rarely worked out well for them. Sitting at 50 percent approval, back above water, he is still very much in the game, no matter how often they insist otherwise.